Still Growth Potential
With the developments since the implementation of the Cannabis Act (CanG), the medicinal cannabis industry has so far been the clear winner of decriminalization in Germany. Before April 1, it was estimated that there were between 200,000 and 300,000 cannabis patients in Germany. The exact number is difficult to determine due to private prescriptions, which are poorly documented, but by now the numbers could easily be twice as high.
Assuming that in the medium term, about one percent of the German population (approximately 840,000 people) will become patients, the market for medicinal cannabis could generate an annual turnover of about 1.7 billion euros by the end of 2025. This estimate is relatively conservative, as the growth could be even stronger with a continued increase in patient numbers.
Growth in Medicinal Cannabis Despite Decriminalization of Recreational Use
Some might assume that with the decriminalization of cannabis for recreational use, there would be a decline in cannabis prescriptions by doctors. Some patients, especially those paying out of pocket, might consider growing their own cannabis to save money on pharmacy purchases. Moreover, those who used the medical cannabis system as a way to legalize their use might forgo the prescription and take advantage of the new, albeit highly bureaucratic, freedom.
However, the reality is likely to unfold differently. Without regulated trade in specialty shops, recreational consumers currently have no suitable source for legal cannabis other than doctors and pharmacies. Even those who already had seeds on April 1 and planted them immediately will have to wait months for their first harvest. Cannabis clubs were not an option at first, as applications could only be submitted starting July 1 to begin operations. Additionally, with the removal of cannabis from the Narcotics Act, it can be prescribed much more easily and through a standard prescription.
Cannabis Companies Expected More
Platforms like Bloomwell, Kanna Medics, and Canify facilitate video consultations with doctors who prescribe cannabis. Bloomwell alone cooperates with more than 65 doctors and, like its competitors, is looking for more licensed general practitioners to offer cannabis consultations. In end-customer sales, specialized providers such as Grünhorn Apotheke and Grüne Brise are particularly active.
Behind these specialized providers are major players in the business: Grüne Brise is part of the Bloomwell Group. The telemedicine doctor intermediary Algea Care and Grüne Brise, the pharmacy platform, now operate together under the Bloomwell brand. Grünhorn is the largest cannabis group in Germany. Among the producers active in Germany is Aurora, which markets and promotes cannabis for recreational use in Canada and several US states where it is legal.
Patients Paying Out of Pocket
There is no central oversight or at least documentation of the number of cannabis prescriptions. Most prescriptions are paid for privately. Few people seem to go through the trouble of getting their prescription and medication costs reimbursed by their health insurance. Depending on individual consumption, monthly costs can quickly add up to three-digit amounts. The National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds (GKV) is not aware of any increase in such insurance-covered prescriptions. However, the GKV does not yet have figures for recognized prescriptions this year.
In online discussion forums like Reddit, many consumers exchange information about who prescribed cannabis and in what quantities. Many users report specific complaints such as menstrual pain, headaches, sleep disorders, or severe chronic illnesses they treat with cannabis. Others seem primarily interested in recreational use. Some are disappointed with the prescribed amount or the THC content – the messenger substance responsible for the high.
Complaints about not receiving a prescription at all are not found. The prescription practice appears to be not very restrictive. Users are more annoyed by several-week waits for doctor appointments and longer delivery times from some mail-order pharmacies, which seem to struggle to keep up with high demand.
Conclusion: Now is the Time to Invest
The German medicinal cannabis industry is on a steep growth trajectory. With a conservative revenue forecast of 1.7 billion euros by the end of 2025 and a growing number of patients, the market offers enormous opportunities for investors. The decriminalization of recreational cannabis will further boost the demand for medical cannabis, and companies like Bloomwell, Grünhorn, and Aurora are ready to meet this demand.
Investors who enter this dynamic market early can benefit from the robust growth opportunities. With increasing acceptance and better regulation, Germany could soon become one of the leading markets for medicinal cannabis worldwide. Don’t miss the opportunity to invest in this promising industry and reap the benefits of its enormous potential.
