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Bidding war for Aurora: If you grow in Leuna, Germany you don’t need an import quota!

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The fight for Aurora has turned into a bidding war. Curaleaf has raised its offer to US$5 per share, Organigram has suddenly joined the table, and in the middle of it all Aurora is doubling production in Leuna, Germany. These things fit together. Whoever grows in Germany does not depend on an import quota that Berlin no longer wants to raise. And that quota is getting tight this year.

America first: why Curaleaf wants to buy now

To understand why Curaleaf is so persistent, it helps to look at the US. On December 11, the federal ban on intoxicating hemp products takes effect. From then on, only 0.4 milligrams of THC per container will be allowed, which pushes most THC drinks, gummies, vapes and hemp flower out of the legal market (Forbes).

Operators themselves say who benefits. Green Thumb CEO Ben Kovler calls Ohio an early example: most intoxicating hemp products are disappearing from retail there, and consumers are moving into the licensed channel. In his view, this environment favors operators that already have scale, brands and shelf space (Green Thumb, Q2 2026). Ohio’s numbers fit: according to Headset, trailing twelve-month sales reached US$1.12 billion, up 35 percent year over year (Headset).

It isn’t quite that simple, though. Economist Beau Whitney of Whitney Economics expects much of the demand to move not to dispensaries but to the illicit market and online sellers, especially in states without an adult-use market such as Texas, or in Florida, where only patients can buy (Forbes).

It is also worth noting who is pushing the ban in Washington. According to POLITICO Pro, the licensed cannabis industry has stepped up its lobbying against the so-called Farm Bill loophole. It sees hemp as “an unfair, unregulated market” selling marijuana-like products outside the rules that apply to state-licensed companies. In August, the U.S. Cannabis Roundtable was on Capitol Hill with representatives from Trulieve, Ascend and Curaleaf, meeting staff of lawmakers from both parties, including Minority Whip Katherine Clark and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar. [Insert link to the POLITICO Pro article or the LinkedIn post]

So Curaleaf is playing on two levels. In the US, it lobbies for hemp demand to move into licensed dispensaries. In Europe, it is trying to buy access to the German pharmacy market through Aurora. Both come down to the same thing: regulation decides who is allowed to sell, and Curaleaf wants to be on the right side when the door closes.

Curaleaf itself is not betting on hemp. Back in December 2025, Boris Jordan announced that the company would wind down its small hemp THC business ahead of the ban, saying hemp simply doesn’t move the needle for Curaleaf (MJBizDaily). The bet is on the licensed market, in the US and in Europe.

The lesson from America is the same one I see for Europe: in the end, the winner is not whoever has the biggest field, but whoever has distribution and brands. In the US, that means multi-state operators like Green Thumb, Trulieve and Curaleaf, brand houses like Wyld or Jeeter, and distributors like Nabis. In Germany, the same logic runs through the pharmacy. Curaleaf has distribution through Four20 Pharma, Aurora brings brands, well-known strains and certified supply. That is exactly why Aurora is in such demand.

Leuna: Aurora doubles capacity in the middle of a bidding war

On October 8, Aurora opened a new production hall at the Leuna chemical park in Saxony-Anhalt. According to the company, this doubles the site’s capacity. Aurora invested a mid single-digit million euro amount, headcount rises from 45 to 55, and the site is now called “Aurora Horizon”, a name chosen by the staff themselves (Pharmazeutische Zeitung, Apotheke Adhoc).

German broadcaster MDR adds the details: the new production area covers 500 square meters and the harvest volume is set to double. Managing director Andreas Dotterweich calls Leuna an excellent location from which to supply all of Germany and Europe. More than 600 sensors and around 130 cameras secure the site, and the walls are made of 25 centimeters of reinforced concrete. The site grows Aurora’s own genetics from its research facility Aurora Coast in British Columbia (Cannabis Business Times).

Leuna is one of only three licensed cultivation sites in Germany, alongside Demecan in Saxony and Tilray in Neumünster. As recently as July 2024, Aurora said it had no plans to increase production for the time being and would stay at around one tonne per year (Volksstimme/dpa).

Opening the hall right now is also a message to Aurora’s own shareholders. While Curaleaf tells them Aurora is too small on its own, Aurora shows that its most valuable asset is growing: certified supply grown in Germany. And in Germany, that is currently worth more than any facility in Canada, for a reason explained in the next section.

The quota: 251 tonnes allowed, 300 tonnes expected

Germany can only import medical cannabis within an annual estimate that the federal drug agency BfArM reports to the International Narcotics Control Board (INCB). For 2026, the INCB confirmed an import estimate of around 251.4 tonnes, updated on September 3 (krautinvest). Yet Health Minister Carsten Linnemann told the German Pharmacists’ Conference on September 15 that his ministry expects 300 tonnes this year, and called that abuse rather than a success in patient care (Hanf Magazin).

The numbers don’t add up. 2025 showed how this ends: in September, the reported ceiling of 122 tonnes was exhausted, BfArM stopped approving imports for weeks and only then raised the ceiling to 192.5 tonnes (krautinvest). In the end, Germany still imported 201 tonnes in 2025 (krautinvest).

This time the political climate is different. According to the Health Ministry, the INCB has repeatedly called for countermeasures against the high import volumes, though the ministry gives no details. Judith Heimbürger of gunnercooke pointed out to krautinvest that without the actual INCB letter, it is unclear what escalation stage the exchange has reached. This was also a topic in our DEEP-DIVE session last week.

My reading: the federal government has no interest in raising the import quota again. A government that considers imports abuse and wants to ban mail-order delivery will not voluntarily apply for more. Domestic cultivation, on the other hand, fits the political picture, because it does not count against the import estimate. For 2026, BfArM reported around ten tonnes of domestic production to the INCB, based on figures from the producing companies.

For the bidding war, this means: if the quota stops growing, it becomes hard for any newcomer to enter Germany, and with it Europe’s leading market. Whoever is already in, with import volumes and their own cultivation, is sitting on a scarce asset. Aurora has both. In this logic, Leuna is not a side show. It is the asset that grows independently of Berlin’s import policy.

[Falk: add any concrete statement from the DEEP-DIVE on the government’s missing response here.]

Curaleaf raises: US$5 and a higher cap

On October 5, Curaleaf raised its offer by 25 percent and formally filed the change the next day (SEC, Notice of Variation).

  Original offer (Aug 11) Enhanced offer (Oct 5)
Value per Aurora share US$4.00 US$5.00
Curaleaf shares per Aurora share 0.3463 0.4013
Cash component US$0.75 US$1.00
Cap price US$5.00 US$6.00
Premium to unaffected price (US$2.75) 45% 86%

Boris Jordan says Curaleaf has met with a significant share of Aurora’s shareholders, all of whom support the strategic rationale. Curaleaf plans to extend the expiry beyond December 1.

Two things stand out. First, the cash portion remains around one fifth, and Aurora’s own cash of C$149 million still covers it easily. Second, according to Aurora’s statement of August 11, Curaleaf’s private letter of July 7 already implied a value of US$5 per share (Aurora 6-K). After two months of public fighting, Curaleaf is back where it started in July. The market is not convinced yet: on the day of the raise, Aurora closed at US$4.46 on Nasdaq, well below the offer value (Kalkine).

Organigram: strategic buyer or price driver?

On October 9, Cultivated editor-in-chief Jeremy Berke reported that Organigram has been in talks with Aurora for several weeks about a possible deal, as a merger or in another form. There is no guarantee, and neither company comments on rumors (Cultivated).

Curaleaf reacted the same day, unusually sharply. The world’s largest cannabis company, with a market cap of US$2.6 billion, is being denied due diligence access, it said, while a small Canadian company worth around US$200 million appears to be welcomed. Curaleaf said it was outraged, and that Aurora shareholders should be too (Cannabis Equipment News). Aurora CEO Miguel Martin continues to urge shareholders to take no action until the special committee has reviewed the new offer.

It is fair to ask whether Organigram really wants Aurora. There are arguments for both readings.

Signs of genuine strategic interest:

  • In April, Organigram completed its acquisition of Berlin-based Sanity Group for €113.4 million upfront plus an earnout of up to €113.8 million (Business Wire). Sanity grew revenue from €9 million in 2023 to €60 million in 2025 and sees itself as number two in the German market (Organigram Circular).
  • That puts Organigram exactly where Curaleaf stands with Four20 Pharma: distribution yes, domestic German supply no. Leuna would solve the quota problem.
  • BAT is an anchor shareholder and invested an additional C$65.2 million alongside the Sanity deal. Capital for a second big step is not out of the question.

The interest is stated strategy: Organigram wants to be vertically integrated in Europe, from seed to pharmacy, with Germany as its largest market (Forbes Austria).

Signs of a price driver:

  • With a market cap of around US$200 million, Organigram is smaller than Aurora. A cash bid above Curaleaf’s US$5 is hard to imagine; a merger of equals in shares is more realistic.
  • A credible second suitor is Aurora’s best tool to push Curaleaf higher, whether or not an Organigram deal ever happens.
  • Organigram also benefits if a competitor in the German pharmacy market has to pay a high price, or if Curaleaf doesn’t get Aurora at all.

My take: Organigram has a real motive, German supply for the Sanity distribution network. But without new capital, this is more likely a merger than a counter-bid. Organigram has already achieved its biggest effect: it has put the price in play.

Who ends up with Aurora?

Aurora is unlikely to stay alone. The open question is with whom, and at what price.

Scenario For Against
Curaleaf wins through the tender offer Offer raised, deadline being extended, broad shareholder support according to Jordan Board still rejects it, two thirds of fully diluted shares required, paid mostly in Curaleaf stock
Negotiated deal with Curaleaf Cap leaves room up to US$6, Organigram strengthens Aurora’s negotiating position Relationship strained after two months of public fighting
Merger with Organigram Sanity needs German supply, BAT as capital provider, a merger instead of a takeover spares Aurora’s management Only talks so far, Organigram smaller than Aurora, counter-bid above US$5 hard to finance
Aurora stays independent No debt, C$149 million cash, Leuna growing End of statutory health insurance coverage for flower in Germany, cuts in Canada, weaker 2027 outlook

The list of realistic buyers is short because the profile is narrow. You need access to German pharmacies, a stock to use as currency, and the willingness to pay a premium for scarce certified supply. With an import quota that no longer grows, that profile is getting narrower, not wider.

Conclusion

Germany is where this is decided. It is where leadership in Europe is won, and it is where supply is becoming politically scarce. An import quota of 251 tonnes won’t cover a forecast of 300 tonnes, and the federal government has little reason to raise it again. Whoever has access then, with distribution, brands and domestic cultivation, holds a lead that can no longer be built from scratch. That is exactly what Aurora offers.

Curaleaf has understood this and is now paying US$5. Organigram has understood it too; whether it can afford Aurora is another question. Aurora itself is playing its strongest card at exactly the right moment: a new hall in Leuna.

My bet: Curaleaf moves toward US$6, or Aurora opens its books to both. What’s your view? If you want to talk about it, reach me at falk@cannabis-startups.com.

Catch up: Round one · Round two [insert link]

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