A week ago, the U.S. elected a new president, and at the same time, Germany faces political turbulence: Chancellor Olaf Scholz plans to call a vote of confidence in mid-January. “Business as usual,” one might think—but not quite. As an investor, I’ve learned not to rely on governments, but I did expect a bit more stability. What do these political shifts mean for Germany’s business landscape, especially for an industry like cannabis, which depends on tangible progress? Is political stability truly the key to success, or is it the determination to act? Or is doing nothing simply a strategy to prolong a political career?
Stalemate in Health Policy After the End of the Coalition Government
With the collapse of the coalition government, Germany’s health policy risks grinding to a halt. The CDU/CSU has made it clear they are unwilling to support the weakened government on key legislative initiatives. Much-needed reforms are likely to stall. What’s more concerning: the CDU/CSU not only opposes upcoming initiatives but also seeks to reverse projects like the Cannabis Control Act.
This obstructionist stance exacerbates uncertainties in the cannabis sector, an industry that urgently needs clear political action. Without necessary reforms, innovation and investment may suffer—a missed opportunity for Germany to compete internationally.
Dependence on Private Investors
Germany’s cannabis sector is at a crossroads. Legalization has opened doors to new business models, but many founders face a major hurdle: funding. Institutional investors like banks remain cautious—due to legal uncertainties and the perceived risks of a young market.
Last week, I attended the TALMAN HOUSE Investor Event, where I met numerous investors from North America. Once again, Mr. Mücke confirmed that private investors dominate the cannabis market. Nevertheless, Germany offers opportunities: smart financial planning and the integration of financial institutions could support long-term innovation. Since partial legalization in April, the industry has experienced incredible growth, fueled by increasing societal acceptance.
However, to truly compete internationally, the sector needs more than private investment. The U.S. shows that regulatory advances like SAFE Banking and access to capital markets are critical. Without similar initiatives, Germany risks falling short of realizing the potential of its growing cannabis industry.
Regulation: Between Hope and Stagnation
The announcement of model projects has raised hopes but also carries risks. The danger lies in overburdening authorities, which could delay the approval of cultivation licenses. Just as the market begins to pick up speed, the process risks being slowed by administrative bottlenecks. Adding to this is the uncertainty surrounding the political will to act decisively.
Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir is under particular pressure. Announcing model projects is not enough—implementation is key. In Baden-Württemberg, Özdemir’s home state, issuing licenses could provide a significant boost to the industry and restore trust. Without visible action, however, sentiment is likely to sour.
Cem Özdemir: Between Ambition and Action
Cem Özdemir has ambitious goals: he wants to become Minister-President of Baden-Württemberg in 2026. But words alone are not enough. People expect progress and clear signals, such as the approval of cultivation licenses or support for cities looking to regulate cannabis. Özdemir’s own motto could serve as his guiding principle:
“#2Ö26 I want to become Minister-President of my wonderful home state. If we stay true to ourselves, explore new paths, and move forward boldly, the best is yet to come.”
But the best will only become reality if he takes bold steps now—with actions instead of words. The cannabis industry cannot afford delays. It needs clear decisions to unlock its full potential. Özdemir has the chance to lead by example. The question is: Will he seize it?
